Introduction to COVID-19:
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by a newly discovered coronavirus. Most people who fall sick with COVID-19 will experience mild to moderate symptoms and recover without special treatment.
Human coronaviruses, first characterized in the 1960s, are responsible for a substantial proportion of upper respiratory tract infections in children. Since 2003, at least 5 new human coronaviruses have been identified, including the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus, which caused significant morbidity and mortality which is currently turning the world down.
According to the wiki, several
of the early cases had visited Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market and so the virus
is thought to have a zoonotic origin. The virus that caused the outbreak is
known as SARS‐CoV‐2, a newly discovered virus closely related to bat
coronaviruses, pangolin coronaviruses, and SARS-CoV.
The scientific consensus is that COVID-19 has a natural origin. The probable
bat-to-human infection may have been among people processing bat carcasses and
guano in the production of traditional Chinese medicines.
While the research was proceeding
to explore the pathogenicity and epidemiology of the human corona viruses, the
number, and importance of animal coronaviruses were growing rapidly. Corona
viruses were described that caused disease in multiple animal species,
including rats, mice, chickens, turkeys, calves, dogs, cats, rabbits and pigs.
THE MOST COMMON QUESTION, WHEN WILL PANDEMIC END?
This is the most searched question in 2020, Former FDA Commissioner, Dr.Scott Gottlieb said, the outbreak will end with a vaccine or when enough people naturally develop antibodies against the virus due to the infection.
But recently the research says
that the suppression is not due to the role of antibody but due to the action
of helper T-Cells which act independently from the antibody.
The end of pandemic depends upon
a number of factors:
1. How much knowledge we have
gathered about the virus itself? The more knowledge we gather faster we get rid
of it. such knowledge will use in developing an effective and safe vaccine. It
seems if we get lucky, this virus shares a huge similarity with the previously
studied coronavirus called SARS and MERS. he allowed the scientist to gather
enough knowledge about the current virus in a short period of time and came in
handy in speeding the development of a vaccine.
2. The second important factor is the industrial capacity to mass-produce the vaccine. Developing the vaccine against the coronavirus is just the first step towards ending the pandemic. The vaccine needs to be mass-produced and distributed globally. Thousands of health workers need to be recruited in distributing and administering the vaccine. The logistics that follow the development of the vaccine might take longer than testing and developing the vaccine itself. The faster we do this step, the faster we get rid of this global epidemic.
One of the most popular vaccines
that have been currently testing is OXFORD vaccine which is in phase 2 and 3 of
human trials. The team behind it believes that it could be ready by September
of August of this year. This might be a premature conclusion because vaccine
development is as hard as rocket science. The vaccine might fail in the very last
step which will render all previous work invalid and force us to restart. But
let's be optimistic because over 160 companies are working on a vaccine. If one
fails another might succeed.
Some experts believe that the
early vaccine for the virus will be ready by December 2020. The second half
just provides us an idea of whether a vaccine is effective or not. If the
vaccine is effective the logistics that will follow including mass production
would probably take another 3 to 6 months. That being said the vaccine will
likely be ready for distribution by mid-2021.
3. The third factor is the virus
itself. The virus could either mutate to become more aggressive or less
aggressive. If the virus mutates and new mutation causes it to become more
aggressive, all the work towards the virus development will go to vain and this
will cause a major delay in ending the pandemic.
If the virus mutates in a way that makes it less aggressive, then COVID-19 infection will become mild and less-lethal which will help us to end the pandemic with fewer deaths. As far as we know, the coronavirus is mutating slowly and its mutation is not happening at key sites of its genome. It means the virus is evolving into an aggressive version of itself. Because of the scientist believe, a single vaccine will be enough to get rid of it.
4. The fourth factor that determines when will this pandemic be over is how willing are you to maintain social distancing. Millions of people are out there since country decided to reopen. But they are not practicing social distancing. They form very large crowds that lead to more cases and the explosion of cases means the health care capacity to take new patients will be disrupted. Such disruption can cause a delay in getting rid of the pandemic, all the resources and energy will have to be shifted in treating the new cases. Many countries spend millions of dollars in order to get rid of the pandemic. and that's just to treat the new cases. such resources can be challenged into developing and mass-producing the vaccine. So, the best is to PLAY SAFE. Continue practicing social distancing until an effective and safe vaccine is ready for everyone.
New models have come out that the no of daily new cases was 70-80k per day but after relaxing the cases jumped 150k daily which is beyond the prediction. One thing for sure if we get a new peak and stronger second wave the health care system of almost every nation would
have difficulty in coping with the new cases and we may end up going to step one in our fight against the coronavirus, In another word another LOCKDOWN.
All in all, the pandemic will end when the vaccine is ready. And when is that ?
Well, it depends upon how we
handle social distancing measures in the coming few months. If everything goes
as planned, we could have a vaccine either by the end of this year or mid-2021
the earliest. Until then we will need to do our part and continue practicing
social distancing whenever possible.
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